After a week off poker again due to work and staying in London all week, i got up early saturday morning a played 2 game onlines the ferguson and a $1 45 manner. Came 21st in the ferguson and 1st in the 45manner had won a $26 off $2 which i was happy about nothing major but it all helps,
Im going to play the 29k gtd and 3 $1 tourneys on FullTilt and hopefully have a good run again plus the 8k GTD on Party and a few freeroll on there too
Hills, Ladbrokes and Paddy Power have a market on the % voter turnout in the next UK General Election. They have similar prices, but I think the conventional wisdom that the % will increase is wrong.
The problem is that those interested in politics have an understandably different opinion as to how likely people are to vote – they are not a good sample, and it is difficult for them to think what less interested people will do! They (rightly) see this is a critical election. They think that there will be an increased Conservative turnout which will increase the % voting. I think this will be (at least) balanced by the Labour voter ‘no shows’ with Labour voter dissatisfaction with Gordon Brown. In addition, the turnout will be deflated by the expenses scandal as a general negative for all politicians.
I think the most likely guide to whether a person will vote is if they have voted before (which show, over the past decades, a general decline). Looking at the % figures from the last five elections and taking all the above factors into account, I think we will have a turnout of 55-60%. I’ve had 20 pts (my max. stake) at 7-1 on this.
First of all sorry for being so lazy and not updating this blog enough. Will try and do a new post at least once a week from now on.
Since my last post ive still been grinding 10nl with a few shots at 25nl too, and that is still going very well.
Last week I bought a new phone nokia 5800 and I havent stopped fucking about with it since, which means ive hardly played much poker. The poker that I have played as all been on fulltilt’s new rush poker. I didnt have any roll on FT so I deposited $40 from my stars account and ran it up to $120 at its highest point. The swings are crazy also tilting like a cock doesnt help.
rush poker graph:
10nl for January, about 250 hands at 25nl here too
I was all ready to go to the live event at creswell last post but I decided to check the postcode on their forum and noticed a post canceling the event because of the bad weather. Would of been my luck that getting there only to find that it wasnt on.
Daly said…
why are you playing $10nl if you have $1300 in your roll? not a dig just wondering
Im still playing 10nl because most of my roll was made in the 2/180s, im running at 8 PTBB/100 over 40k hands at 10nl I take shots at 25nl sometimes. dont feel as comfortable losing a buyin at 25nl has 10nl, which hopefully I can overcome.
Will do a goals post for feb over the weekend
Bankroll: $1360
Hey Guys!
Negatives out the way first. Week 3 has pretty much been a dissapointment. I started w/ a lesson on the wendesday with my coach. We were on for about 6 hours and he said my play had improved which was good. However wednesday through to sunday my internet connection was being a twat which meant I didnt make the weekend reviews and obviously couldnt play. I did squeeze some free online games in but it was tilting me no end and affecting my play badly so I just didnt play anywere near enough. It hasnt been totally bad an I did still book a small profit but I am not yet on the $7s which has not pleased me. My roll is on $360 an thats my total 3 weeks profit lol.
Anyway on to the positives. The main one being I have left work. I have done this for a few reason but the main one being I fucking hate it an lifes to short to stay in a job you hate whether its security or not. Too many people in life plod along with their monitinous lifes an dont realise that soon it will be over. We only get one chance at life an this is it, lifes not a rehersal. I have a enough money to see me through for a little while and a good business opportunity to go into with a friend in april. Plus i could always find another dead end sales job. Yes I have a mortgage and responsibilities but its time to take a risk
The next 4 weeks will be spent with total dedication to the programme am on. Playing a strict 10 hour per day shcedule mon-thurs, then on sundays to. I have informed both Nick and my coach of the situation so they will be expecting alot of volume from me starting Monday. They have both shown patience with me when it comes to the lack of volume but they wont wait round forever so next week I am goin go step things up and want to be on the $7s by the end of next week at the latest. Infact guys I am goin to set myself a challenge right here an right now which is to play more in week 4 than I have in weeks 1,2 and 3. Or at least equal it
Another positive is that this is my 1st consistent month of profit in poker ever. Yes I have good wins in the past but never stuck to a system, playing the same virtual online gamess with strict BRM. The fact £360 is a small profit and nothing to write home about is not the point its a consistent profit which is what matters. No matter how frustrasting the 180s get I just have to keep going and keep grinding. The $2s are so sick. I have been making more deep runs an FT’s than in week 2 but just cant book a win for love nor money. I dont seem to playing any differently just running into big hands in optimal spots or people calling of light and hitting so I am just trying not to let it get to me.
Stats so far;
Games played: 355
profit per game online: $1
ROI: 46%
Total Profit: £357
**Edit***
Just been set owned in the WBCOOP!! I knew if he 4 bet the flop he’d flopped a set or a straight but o well I couldnt find a fold… gg freerollaments!!
PokerStars Game #38878710316: Tournament #280000004, Freeroll Hold’em No Limit – Level II (15/30) – 2010/01/28 23:17:23 WET [2010/01/28 18:17:23 ET]
Table ’280000004 182′ 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: hks1989 (1625 in chips)
Seat 2: moondino (2065 in chips)
Seat 3: kpuche35 (1895 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: altvoid (5130 in chips)
Seat 5: badcallthat (1855 in chips)
Seat 6: lostsoul311 (3210 in chips)
Seat 7: onlybeef42 (1895 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: Mr.PacoLoco (1955 in chips)
Seat 9: pansanitar (4610 in chips)
Mr.PacoLoco: posts small blind 15
pansanitar: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to badcallthat [Ad Ac]
hks1989: folds
moondino: calls 30
kpuche35: folds
altvoid: raises 120 to 150
badcallthat: calls 150
lostsoul311: folds
onlybeef42: folds
Mr.PacoLoco: folds
pansanitar: folds
moondino: calls 120
*** FLOP *** [7h 9c 6d]
moondino: bets 30
altvoid: raises 150 to 180
badcallthat: raises 450 to 630
moondino: raises 1285 to 1915 and is all-in
altvoid: folds
badcallthat: calls 1075 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (210) returned to moondino
*** TURN *** [7h 9c 6d] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [7h 9c 6d Qd] [6c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
moondino: shows [9h 9s] (a full house, Nines full of Sixes)
badcallthat: shows [Ad Ac] (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
moondino collected 4085 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4085 | Rake 0
Board [7h 9c 6d Qd 6c]
Seat 1: hks1989 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 2: moondino showed [9h 9s] and won (4085) with a full house, Nines full of Sixes
Seat 3: kpuche35 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 4: altvoid folded on the Flop
Seat 5: badcallthat showed [Ad Ac] and lost with two pair, Aces and Sixes
Seat 6: lostsoul311 folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 7: onlybeef42 (button) folded before Flop (didn’t bet)
Seat 8: Mr.PacoLoco (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: pansanitar (big blind) folded before Flop
gl fishes an wish me luck for next week an I leave you with one my fave songs ever, what a legend he really was!
Garry
The was one big difference last night, I felt really good about playing before play began. I told The_Unc_III, who I also work with, that I was going to win two tourneys before I left work. I fell ever so slightly short of that mark, but two 180 FTs was close enough. 8th in one when A9 couldn’t fill out a flush vs AQ allin on a Axx twotone flop, and 4th in the other when my 68 paired the twotone flop but after getting allin on the turn couldn’t avoid a third crub on the river. Crubs always get there, I’ve heard. The 4th was more disappointing than the 8th place. I had big reads on all 3 of my opponents and their play was generally telegraphed and poor. Despite being the short stack for much of that final table I was convinced I could go on to win if the cards held up for me.
Of course I still made a huge mistake in one fre online game, the $3 rebuy. I was quite nicely swimming along when I got dragged into a rag hand on my BB. Min raised with 4 callers, I called the extra 1bb with 10d 3d. 2 diamonds on the J high flop gave me some interest and it was checked round. First position bet small on the rag turn and I was the only caller. The river was another J and I shoved without thinking about whether that made any sense or not. The other player was extremely tight, my shove did not fit at all well with how I’d played the rest of the hand, and after a good long think he called with 99. A silly mistake and my excuse is I had tables popping up all over the place by then (WBCOOP had started too), thankfully I do things like that less and less these days.
Monday night I had a decent run too, finishing 281st when AK couldn’t beat KQ. I started re-reading Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo at the weekend. The way I played better and felt better last night is directly linked to picking up this great book again.
And finally congrats to CK for finishing ITM in the LAPC O-8 event. GG!
Waiting on the gate opening on my flight to JFK, playing some Rushpoker on FTP. It’s perfect for messing around with in this type of situation, wouldn’t like to grind it though. Having a virtual gameplan to stick to and not adapting to the table/players just isn’t anywhere near as interesting to ‘real 6max’. I’m constantly thinking is it even worth my time playing this hand? where I clearly have some small amount of EV… which feels kind of leatherassy and lame. Real 6max is just way more intersting but this is definitely a cool alternative for quick poker – a quick/easy blast.
So yea, will arrive in NY around midnight tonight and taxi it over to Hoboken where the yearlong American adventure begins. Looking forward to hanging out with Mark, Dan, Dave and co. See you at Christmas, UK!
Spent about 40 mins on Rush Poker last night and turned the $9 I had left on FullTilt into $40. At the moment the virtual game is very very easy. I played a simple strategy of good cards or good position. There are a lot of people raising in LP trying to take the blinds without a fight so defending blinds with a reraise has a very high success rate. Also a lot of people simply raising and then potting any flop and folding to either a raise or a float and bet on the turn. I won a lot of pots with no showdown simply by doing this, at least a third of my winnings I would say.
Busted out of my last $4 180 yesterday when a Frenchie decided to defend his BB to my MP raise holding J2, which was good enough to beat my AK thanks to the J high flop. Genius. I continue the good fightâ¦.
Just got back from a working trip in Germany for a week, On thursday night i played a live turbo rebuy tourney 20 starters 15⬠entry. 3 Uk players ie work mates and 1 USA player and the rest were Germans we started with a 4000k stack, Germans were bluffing a stealing till level 6/7 then tightened up… Won 3 pots with KK, A8 and QJ got up to 9000k then lost a 3000k pot and was forced to shove A 4 suited when the blinds/antes were at 1000/2000 ante 100, just lost one more club and i would of been in great shape and finished tied 9th……
Right in a few Tourneys on Fulltilt this evening and will be playing in the BLT and Double Deuce, and a couple of GTD on PartyPoker looking forward to this as ive been running deep in mmts the last 2weeks, I rarely play on Stars and playing in my first WBCOOP entered for all of them and hope to get a bankroll on there at last…. Plus planning to play the Full Tilt Double GTD’s weeks too low buying one and hopefully ship some big bucks again
Just wanted to check back in and share the promised photo from last post:
Fabio! If you watch top chef like me you’ll recognize who that is. He was one of my favorite chefs from all seasons, and we got to enjoy a 7 course meal prepared by him at his new restaurant, Firenze. It was a great meal and great trip.
I’ve had a pretty good start to the year, with poker and everything else. Really stoked about the Olympics coming up, should be a crazy month!
The play was terrible in a lot of them, with players not able to fold hands, calling all in with Ace high on the turn and then spiking etc etc. So it all came down to one competition the $3 1.5k GTD 6 MAX comp, 2354 runners and I will say now I was surprised with the quality of play. Now before I go any further a good poker friend of mine Phil Blackwell deserves a mention here. Over the past few months we have been playing about 1 night a week on Stars and doing a % deal on various comps, we are in constant contact on MSN and this has improved my virtual game no end. We are constantly railing each other, he offers me advice, knows when I am about to go on spastic monkey tilt and gets me to sort my head out. But it motivates me to play well as he either watching or playing a different comp which I have a cut in or vice versa. Last night I was commenting on his hand history and giving my opinion and he was doing the same, he also stepped in a bout 3 times to give me a slap and calm me down. TY Phil top man.
So with out going right into the finer details, about 6.5 hours in and we are down to 2 tables, I take complete control of my table and go from 600k up to 1.8 million as we hit the final table. I am 2nd in chips and can afford to sit back and let a few players exited, but I was so much in the zone I went straight to work at it, at my own cost. I messed up yet again deep in a competition, I call a raise with A8 hearts on the SB out of position from the guy 3rd in chips, the flop comes down 3c 4 c 8d, He bets out about half the pot and I 4 bet him wanting to take the pot there and then. He tanks and eventually calls, I put him on a strong A and he is being stubborn, thinking I am at it from the outset trying to control the table. Turn comes a 6c and I jam the pot trusting my readâ¦.. Which is wrong and he INSTA calls me with Kc Qc, the 8 on the river was no help, I am down to 200k.. IDIOT.
I manage to re-group and get my stack up to 700k, the play is very, very good for a $3 comp and I know I have a real up hill battle. We lose a player and I then attempt another crazy bluff to accumulate chips, I have K6 in the SB and raise the BB calls and the flop drops 10 3 10, I bet and he flats, I donât put him on a 10, perhaps 66 or something like that. Turn brings an A, and I decide to check slam it if he bets, to represent the A, so I check he bets and I slam. He calls faster than a speeding bullet and show me 10 7. BOLLOX!! 200k left and I ship it in on the chip leaders BB with AQ off, he calls me with Q9, 3 outs and the first card out is a 9, no ace for Davo time for bed. $289 for my efforts in 5th place, which is a good ROI off $3, but I would have liked to take the $1100 first place prize, but it just wasnât meant to be.
Normally I would be disappointed and dwell over this for days, but I am not, you live by the sword and you die by the sword, I made my moves and they didnât pay off. $289 puts the bankroll back into a healthy place; I know I have made the right decision sticking to what I am good at âthe tourney grind.â Plus my profit for the month stands at $913 so far, purely from tourneys. I am constantly having deep runs and feel as if another big score is on the cards.
Tonight it is the £50 F/O, 12k starting stack at the Blackpool G, myself and Jamboy will be attending, I will be free rolling as Steve owes me a buy in from all the way back in November at the GUKPT, and this will be the first live free online game I have played since then.
Good luck allâ¦â¦
