Italian Vegas

Those who read my blog regularly will know I’m convinced that nationally we will have a low turnout. I backed this earlier this year by placing a bet on a turnout of 55% to 60% turnout at 7/1 (20 pts).

Since then Polling eveidence from COMRES stated that

- 44 per cent said they were “absolutely certain” to vote compared with 56 per cent in February 2005; similarly 18 per cent said that they were “certain not to vote”, compared with 11 per cent five years ago indicating a low turnout.

- When posed with the statement “I think the result of the forthcoming general election will be close”, 70% agreed, with 25 % disagreeing. This would indicate a higher turnout.

I believe this polling evidence has supported my analysis (I think the first piece of evidence above outweighs the second) and the bookies agree. They have now moved 55-60% into 5/1. I’ve decided to have an additional bet at 12-1 (12 pts) on under 55% at Ladbrokes – I’d hate to be more right than I expected and lose

For another view on the turnout, Mike Smithson has written a piece for politicalbetting.com – he disagrees with me, but it is worth reading for a contrary view to mine.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/17/the-great-turnout-quandary/

For now it’s hard work and enjoying the ride.

Over the last few months I’ve swung down around $25k in 60k hands (-$20k all-in ev). While this is pretty standard for these stakes I’ve come to realise that there might be a better way for me to go about things! Playing low volume and fre online game selecting well at higher stakes fre online games worked for a while but it’s not fun when the variance turns negative and can stay that way for 4-5 months.

^ RJD2, who’s DJ’ing here next weekend… yessssss. Go listen to Deadringer if you’ve not heard of him, great music to grind to.

It’s made me re-evaluate things with poker, where I was at, where I’m at now and where I want to be. I moved up to high-stakes last summer after an awesome couple of months and just haven’t got much going since then. I’ve had a lack of stability, a lack of volume, and a ton of variance.

After talking with Ben I’ve decided to drop down in stakes to work on playing his style of high volume, low variance play. I have withdrawn a bunch from my bankroll and shifted down to $1/2 to start out. I’m incredibly comfortable with my online game there so it’ll be the best place to concentrate on the mindset/routine/presence stuff we’re working on.

I’ve had a taster for where my virtual online games is going and it’s blown my mind. The difference is HUGE. I feel like my poker career is starting again here and I’m really pumped about working on it. I’m already playing way better now than I ever have and I can see things progressing a lot in the near future.

I’ve finished playing for the month, it wound up being my worst ever month as a poker player… I started out stuck around $15k in the first few days across just 2000 hands of $5/10 and $10/20. Shifted down to mid-stakes for a bit and never really get enough volume grinded out.

I only just found out who this guy is… but go read this when you want a laugh, it’s insane!

After the Mouurinho press conference, I’ve a ‘gut’ feeling that Mourinho may decide to make a spectacle of himself by not shaking hands with Ancelloti. I’m backing this ‘hunch’ with bets on the following markets at William Hill:

What Will Mourinho Do First Against Chelsea? Leave pitch after match – 2pts @ 25/1
Mourinho & Ancelotti to fail to shake hands after either leg? No, 2pts @ 16/1

I still think Arsenal are reasonable value in the Prem 2009/2010 market, but I’ve decided to take a prudent approach to this market (i.e. less risky) and lay back my origial stake to leave me with an ‘all green’ position.

Hey Guys

Hows it goin, sorry for missin week 6 out but I just all mixed up with the weeks by posting mid week. Week 7 has continued well $$$ wise so am happy with that but my move to the $12s has seen me learn a very valuable lesson in fre online game selection. The best time for me to play would be of a night around 6pm-2am because the virtual online gamess run faster which obvs means a bigger $$ per hour/fre online game. I havent really done calculations around hourly rate because for some reason HEM is only picking up 80% of my free online games and PT3 wants me to manually input all my results, why that is I dont know but the faster the virtual online gamess fill means more online games an more money. However this is when I seem to be coming accross alot more regs which is without doubt -EV. Last night for instance I have luvmywife chip210 johnnyhildo and jphillips EeeTee2008 and I GRIND THIS all at the same table of a $12/180 wtf, and all other names I recognised popping up all over the show like 1bigacehole, jbrown877, vertek, longy11 an of course MI_Turtle, plus plenty more even gavin griffin keeps poppin up, I am shocked at how many top players play the 12s tbh, basically all are solid winning players so why would I want to surround myself with them when I have the luxury of being english and able to play say a 9am-5pm schedule when all these guys are tucked up in bed or doing whatever. I really need to do some calculations as to how many game onlines I can play in each 4 hour session etc but I certainly dont mind playing xtra hours to get the same amount of online games in if the fre online games are softer at certain times which they undoubtedly are so its time to research the free online games at each times an see what I come up with. I am no were near as good or experienced as alot of the regs on stars and I dont need to beat the best to flatter my ego, all I need to do is make money.

Its so funny when you hear people talk about ‘moving up to were they respect my raises’ or ‘I cant win with all them donks about’ or ‘I think its easier to play against the best players’ what a load of bull. Anyone who says that again might aswell never player poker again and the funny thing is I used to say the same. The fact is you find the softest easiest game online around an play in it cause no matter what the donks throw at you, you play well make the right moves an you’ll come out on top.

I squeezed an MTT in this week just the small field $8.80 [500 cap] on stars an managed a final table but the sickness of what happened to me was just sick sick sick. I had 300k in chips an there were 2 short stacks if I remember, I may post the hand history but basically a guy made this like weird shove of 25k, half his stack (or so i thought) but leavin the other 30k chips behind, I misread the shove for like 25k instead of the 250k it was an over shoved with 99 to isolate the shorty, only he werent a shorty an was another big stack with 250k in the middle. I dont know what happened it was pretty weird an quite clever on his part if he meant it but I had been playing about 10 hours an my concentration slipped when I really needed it hold and I ened up out in 5th, I did have 180s up to but it was so sick. I felt by far the best player at the final yet I blew it.

Reviews with nick are still getting better everytime but I am really starting to struggle with the times they’re held. I have a 1-2-1 review with him soon which will be my first one and I am really looking forward to it with all sorts of questions on the ready. As mentioned in my previous post the reviews have been going into more around pre an post flop hand reading based on the actions in the hand etc and it really is interesting and I think I am takin alot out of it. We then obviously use stove to measure our hand against their assigned range an make the correct decision accordingly. This isnt to realistic when 15 tablin turbos but will help alot. Yes alot of our decisions are going to be pre flop but you still find yourself in post flop situations, especially if you’ve chipped up early an people start defending their blind light in the mid stages, on final tables or in MTT’s so its important we get to grasp this concept fast. Plus I dont think I want to be on 180 man turbos forever so the course getting more advanced can only be a good thing

Anyway along with the above final which paid $224 I have managed to get lucky an ship 3 12s so far an an a good few finals which has kept my role intact but I am expecting a big downswing soon. Infact I am in a 35 buyin downswing as we speak which is nothing in 180s so I expect it to continue lol. I havent played at all today for the 1st time in weeks. I had 2 seperate universal replayer sessions a 2 hour session with cogs then a 1 hour session on my own then got some hand historys over to nick and basically just chilled as I have played for like 20 days straight in feb.

here is my current graph to date since I started

meh, ive totally spewed off about $200 playing cash over the past week, bout $100 at rush on FT an $100 on purple lounge after getting off to a great start playing solid Ive just totally fucked up my cash free online game. was down to my last $50 at Fulltilt so decided to spin that up playing 50nl rush. lost it in my 1st hand with A7, A on flop, villan had AJ which was so fucking obvious. Kind of my biggest set back for a while. At the end of Jan I was nearly touching $1500 bankroll, now its sat at $1135, so ive rounded all my money up and put it all back on stars and im going back to grinding the 180mans. will have to sign up to poker idol some other day tripz dont feel good playing else where other than pstars atm.

maybe cash isnt for me, I dont study nowhere near enough as I should be. just stuck on a skill level which I dont see getting past.

Least with Mtts I might luckbox a decent score someday.

and I aint even doing that well at the 2/180s anymore, my ROI is dropping quite fast, 41% over 1100 free online games pretty annoying. need to get motivated.

anyway just a rant post, annoyed at myself for losing some of my roll so easily..

Well I have booked the flights for me and my mate to go. I found an amazing flight for just £90 one way from London to Kuala Lumpur so the money I have saved booking that I might go to Vegas for a week during the WSOP if anyone else goes.

So I leave in September and go to Kuala Lumpur for a few nights then fly to Bangkok and taste the night life there for a few nights, off to Pattaya for a week or so then in October I go to Ko Samui for 4 months to live like a King hopefully.

Really am so excited as I have never been before so its something new for me. Usually when I am waiting for Florida I am not bothered as I have been there so many times now. If I like the place I am 100% buying a villa out there.

I have been on a diet now for about 3 days so far so good, to help me through it I have got some appetite suppressants to stop me craving food. Started some light jogs at night to get me back into it then eventually I will be back in the gym and will get in shape in time for my holiday.

I still haven’t touched a drop of alcohol now for 3 weeks and have not even wanted to drink any. I feel a million times better for it and so does my poker as I am having one of my best months so far.

Will post a final update at the end of the month.

GL

Hey Guys

Things have been going ok since saturday I ended up finishing on the $2s this week an starting on the $12s. My total figures for the $2s were:

Played 989
ROI 56%
Profit $1217

I ended up gettin lucky in the sense that after droppin 15 buyins at the $12s I went an took one down just as I was about to hit the drop back down in buy in amount so that has helped me. After paying paying Nick back his 25% profits etc my roll now stands at $1376 which is ample amount to hit the $12s. I am under no illusions that I may have to drop back down and there will be no shame in doing so, hopefully though, that wont happen. I win at least 1 / 180 manner everyday and hopefully today will be no different

I think I may have done enough to get on the sharkscope leader board for the $2s but I dont seem to be on there yet and I am currently lying 700th in the Feb TLB on stars so hopefully I will maintain that an get in the nice 20k freeroll at the end of the month. I have aslo set a plan to get to gold star by the end of the month, not because I want the 3 shitty lil gold stars next to my name but it means I will have played 400 $12s in the next 2 weeks, acheivable but tough. Also Nick asked me to dabble in the sunday quarter mill on stars which I did this week an min cashed but the encouraging thing is that hopefully I will eventually move towards learning to beat MTT’s which we all know is where the big money is.

The reviews are just gettin better an better. Last nights went in depth about pre an post flop hand reading and assigning oppos a range etc. Nick really wont give up once he starts and even gets himself all tangled up sometimes when going really in depth. I mean we all know the genral poker maths but sometimes your talkin mathematics that 98% of poker players simply wont get but he wont stop until we all understand. The more I get to know him the more I get to like him tbh and he is a funny guy when he’s not pickin on you. However the thing I like is the whole professionalism about the guy. There is no way I could have done this with anyone else an believe me when I tell you the work he is puttin into this course is phenomanal and if you’e lucky enough to get on it, then lucky you!!! Big thanks Nick if your reading this.

Come on the Everton tonight. This is a massive free online game for us against Lisbon and I think we will progress to the next round. We are playing well and confidence is high, it should also be the perfect virtual online games for Arteta to show his skills after a lengthy period out.

Here is my total graph for the programme and good luck at the tables fish!!!